🧶 Why we underestimate complexity ?

People consistently underestimate complexity because of a combination of cognitive biases, mental shortcuts, and social dynamics that favor simplicity and optimism. This tendency is deeply rooted in how the human brain processes uncertainty, risk, and information.

In fields like software development, policymaking, or business strategy

Complexity grows exponentially with scale.

Yet people intuitively assume linear relationships: twice the variables mean twice the work, not ten times more. This linear thinking fails in nonlinear, interdependent systems, where small changes multiply unpredictably.

Ultimately, we underestimate complexity because our minds are wired for efficiency, not accuracy. Simplification, optimism, and social conformity make life manageable — but in complex systems, they also make surprisess inevitable.